By Clifford Ndujihe, Politics Editor

ARGUABLY, the outgoing 2022 is a year of high-wire politicking and intrigues. It is a year that will not be forgotten in a hurry given the landmark events that shaped the polity.

It is a year that new terminologies came into Nigeria’s political lexicon. Terms like Olule, Emilokan, Obidient, and Atikulate, which arose from the activities of leading politicians, have come to stay.

One of the major political issues that shaped 2022 was the emergence of former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former Lagos State Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu; and former Anambra State Governor, Mr. Peter Obi, as presidential candidates.

While Tinubu is running on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, Atiku is gunning for the Aso Rock job on the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP; and Obi is contesting on the plank of the Labour Party, LP.

How Atiku, Tinubu, Obi’s emergence shook polity

Atiku, 76, is one of the oldest presidential candidates on the prowl and his aspiration dates back to 1993, when he first aspired to lead the world’s largest black nation. Ever since, he had always sought the presidency every time the opportunity came apart from 1999 when he went for the governorship of Adamawa State and became governor-elect before he was nominated as PDP vice presidential candidate to Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. They won and ruled the country for eight years. Atiku was the favourite of many PDP governors for the PDP presidential ticket in 2003 but he dropped the idea at the last minute, which paved the way for seamless second term for Obasanjo.

In 2007, Atiku left the PDP and ran for the presidency on the platform of the Action Congress, AC. In 2011, he returned to the PDP but lost the PDP ticket to then President Goodluck Jonathan. In 2015, Atiku left the PDP and teamed up with his new-PDP soul mates to join the APC and yet again lost the APC presidential ticket to President Muhammadu Buhari. However, he returned to the PDP thereafter and won the PDP ticket in 2019 but lost the election proper to President Buhari.

Ahead of the battle for the PDP ticket in 2022, Atiku faced opposition from a section of the party, which wanted power shift to the South after Buhari’s eight years. Buhari is from the North. Atiku prevailed and is now being egged on by a crowd of supporters known as Atikulates. However, he has issues arising from the PDP presidential primaries to contend with as five governors elected on the platform of the party are bent on truncating his ambition.

Tinubu’s measured steps

This is the first time Tinubu is aspiring for the presidency. The Third Republic senator and two-time Lagos governor picked the APC ticket in style. He quietly wormed his way into the hearts of party leaders and governors, especially in the North. At a stage, it appeared some powerful forces in the APC hierarchy were against his emergence. In the heat of the pitch battle, Tinubu, at a meeting with a top monarch in the South-West said it was the turn of the South to produce the President and in the APC it was his turn, emilokan. He went on to justify why President Buhari, and many APC leaders must back him for the APC ticket as a pay back because the ambition of a host of them olule (failed) until he supported them.

A few hours to the APC June 7 presidential primaries, the APC National Chairman, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, reportedly told national officers of the party that Senate President Ahmad Lawan had been chosen as a consensus presidential candidate with the backing of the president. High-wire politicking and horse-trading ensued. The presidency distanced itself from the consensus candidate move and urged free and fair primaries for all the 23 aspirants. Northern APC governors spoke up and said they and other stakeholders were for power-shift to the South.

At the primaries proper, Tinubu stole the show. No fewer than seven aspirants including the only female aspirant stepped down for him as he ran away with a landslide victory. Tinubu polled 1,271 votes to beat immediate past Transportation Minister, Rotimi Aamechi (316 votes); and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (235 votes) among others.

Obi’s fiery run

Like Tinubu, Obi is gunning for the presidency for the first time. He was running mate to Atiku in 2019. Before the parties’ primaries he was seen as one of the strong contenders in the PDP. However, a week to the PDP primaries, he quit the main opposition party alleging corruption and move of some top shots to buy the process. He joined LP where the likes of Prof Pat Utomi stepped down for him and Obi emerged as LP presidential candidate at the convention held in Asaba.

Like a wild harmattan fire, Obi’s emergence is reawakened many youths and others across the country who pride themselves as ‘Obidients’ with a vow to recover Nigeria from corrupt leaders. The recent upsurge in the number of youths seeking registration as voters was linked to the Obidients’ phenomenon.

He is enjoying the support of leaders like former President Obasanjo, and Afenifere Leader, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, who say for equity, justice and fairness in the country, the South-East should produce the next president.

How Atikulate, Emilokan, Obidients’re altering dynamics

Indeed, the emergence of the Atikulate, Emilokan and Obidients phenomenon has altered Nigeria’s political dynamics. As it is, the 2023 election is going to be dicey. ‘No one is sure who among the three leading candidates will win. There may even be a run-off. The diplomatic community shares this view. You can see that many of us are always on the move. We can’t sleep. We must get moving, and meet as many groups as possible. The election is a few months away. It is a long distance race. A lot of endurance is needed,’ one of top presidential candidates, said at an interaction with some stakeholders, recently.

Currently, and exactly 58 days to the February 25, presidential election, the polity is turbo-charged. The leading presidential candidates have kept the political firmament astir with their flurry of activities. They are in a rat race of sorts to outdo one another in criss-crossing the country consulting and brain storming with critical stakeholders and power brokers.

For an election that may be the keenest in the history of presidential polls in the world’s largest black nation, the candidates don’t want to leave anything to chance in their quest to succeed President Buhari, next year. They are constantly on the move engaging on speaking assignments at many events.

To ensure they approach the campaigns with united fronts, leaders of the PDP and APC are engaged in various moves to address issues arising from their presidential primaries or ensure such issues don’t hurt their chances.

Atiku vs G5

Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and his supporters have been at daggers drawn with Atiku since the conclusion of the PDP primaries. Wike came second in the primaries. He was top on the list of the three men recommended by a PDP selection committee for the vice presidential slot. However, Atiku chose Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State instead of Wike saying he chose who he could work with.

The piqued Rivers governor, who enjoys the backing of Governors Samuel Ortom (Benue), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), and Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia) listed a litany of conditions that must be met before he would support Atiku. Top on the list is the resignation of Senator Iyorchia Ayu as PDP national chairman for a southerner to take the position.

Atiku, Ayu and many leaders of the party’s organs are from the North. The fight made immediate past Chairman of PDP Board of Trustees, BoT, Senator Walid Jibrin, to resign for Senator Adolphus Wabara to take over. Also, Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State resigned as chairman of the PDP Governors Forum. His place has been taken by Governor Makinde of Oyo from South-West

In the build-up to the race for the national chairmanship when the PDP hierarchy decided to throw its presidential ticket open, Senator Ayu said in line with the zoning principle of the PDP if the North produced the presidential candidate he would resign if the NWC asked him to do so.

However, Ayu has said he would not resign, saying those asking him to do so were children when he joined forces with other statesmen to found the PDP in 1998.

Now, the G-5 or Integrity group governors as the Wike group is are in London perfecting their plans for 2023. Sources said they are torn between throwing their support for Tinubu or Obi.

PDP sources said they would be suspended or expelled from the party among other punitive measures if they officially declare to support any other presidential candidate apart from Atiku. Among the five, Wike is the only one not contesting for any post in 2023 on PDP’s platform. While Makinde is seeking re-election as governor, Ugwuanyi, Ortom and Ikpeazu are eyeing senate seats.

APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket

In the APC, the dust raised by the Asiwaju Tinubu and Senator Kashim Shettima’s Muslim-Muslim ticket have remained an issue.

After the primaries, it took most aspirants and party members by surprise when Tinubu settled for former Borno State Governor, Kashim Shettima, a fellow Muslim,  as running mate. 

In defence of his choice, Tinubu told those who cared to listen that he chose “competence over sentiments.” He, however, promised to appoint Christians into “sensitive positions” if he wins and becomes president.

However, some northern APC bigwigs who are Christians such as former House of Representatives Speaker, Yakubu Dogara; and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Engr David Babachir Lawal, did not buy the excuse. Both have since with their supporters left APC. While Dogara endorsed Atiku, Babachir Lawal is now for Obi.

Obi faces issues over D-G

In the LP, Obi is facing issues over the headship of his campaign over the exit of Dr Doyin Okupe, who resigned the post last week over his conviction for money laundering by a high court.

The party on Tuesday appointed Chief Akin Osuntokun as the new DG. However, embattled former Spokesperson of the LP, Dr Arabambi Abayomi, has threatened court action if the party did not reverse Osuntokun’s appointment. Arabambi described Osuntokun’s appointment as  DG as   “fraudulent and deceitful” because the appointee according to him is a card-carrying member of the Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, and is contesting the 2023 elections as a Senatorial candidate of the ZLP.

However, the Obi-Datti Media Office has defended the appointment of Osuntokun as the DG of its presidential campaign, and described Arabambi as a saboteur who was doing the bidding of the party’s detractors.

In a statement signed by the Head of Media Obi-Datti Campaign Council, Diran Onifade, it said that “prior to what is an elevation in the Campaign structure, Osuntokun was the South West Coordinator of the campaign in which position he has been functioning.”

Why candidates are under pressure

Apart from their challenges, the candidates are perceived to be under pressure in view of the keenest of the poll. On face value, some pundits have identified regional strength as a major determining factor saying that Tinubu has South-West, Atiku has North-East, and Obi has South-East.

This permutation will leave the North-West, North-Central and South-South as battle grounds.

Some supporters of the three candidates have punctured this simplistic permutation. The Tinubu camp countered that the APC would win South-West and North-West, get more than half of the votes in the North-East especially Borno where Shettima hails from and make impacts in North-Central and some South-South and South-East states.

In like manner, the Atiku camp is laying claims to the North-East, North-West, and some states of the South-South and South-East, which used to be PDP’s electoral World Bank since 1999.

However, the Obi camp, which boasts of having the support of youths across the country said it is eyeing 40 million votes especially from the South-East, South-South, North-Central and parts of the North-West and South-West.

With the election expected to be better than past polls on account of technology, distribution of voters across the country, and wrangling in the various parties, to win the candidates have a tough task on their hands. 

Distribution of voters, polling units

Currently there are  176,846 polling units in Nigeria and 96,954,523 registered voters.

Of these figures the North has 51,768,444 voters and 93,191 polling units while the South has

45,186,079 voters, and 83,655 polling units.

On zonal basis, the figures are

*Northwest — 22,677,756 voters, 41,671 polling units.

* Southwest — 18,332,294 voters, 34,808 polling units.

* North-Central and FCT, Abuja — 16,289,449 voters, 27,514 polling units.

* South-South — 15,362,324 voters, 27,126 polling units.

* Northeast — 12,801,239 voters, 24,006 polling units.

* South-East — 11,491,461 voters, 21,631 polling units.