Having lived under the Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu dispensation for 15 months, we are beginning to see the kind of leader we have on our hands. This article is not about name-calling or malicious stigmatisation of the incumbent president. I am narrating based on what I have seen before as a watcher of Nigerian history. In life, people often do not know who or what they are. It is others that tell them.

Since Nigeria gained her independence in 1960, we have seen two categories of leaders: those who were packaged and imposed on Nigerians by the powers that be; and those who plotted, “snatched power” and “ran away with it”. Incidentally, today is exactly the first anniversary of the formal unveiling of my book: Buhari – Tinubu: How They Snatched and Shared Power, on Amazon Books.

We have had 16 Presidents and Heads of State. Out of the lot, only three – General Ibrahim Babangida, General Sani Abacha and Senator Bola Tinubu – plotted and grabbed power. The rest were sponsored by godfathers or power brokers. Indeed, some of them did not want to be president but were dragged by the scruff of the neck and plonked into that exalted seat!

Our first post-independence leader was Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa. Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe was reduced by the British colonial masters to the Queen of England’s satrap and glorified figurehead. Azikiwe was the only African nationalist who led his country to independence but was not allowed to lead. His National Council for Nigerian Citizens, NCNC, and its affiliates constituted the largest political bloc, followed by the Northern People’s Congress, NPC, and its affiliates and the Action group and its allies.

The colonialists decided to split the North into many tiny constituencies (gerrymandering) to give the NPC the lion’s share of seats in the Federal Parliament. Election rigging in Nigeria was invented by the departing colonial masters. In the end, the NPC, which foot-dragged on our drive towards independence, was rewarded to succeed the colonialists.

The second Nigerian leader – General Umunnakwe Aguiyi Ironsi – had power thrust on him as the most senior military officer after Balewa and others were killed. Ironsi had actually led the fight to crush the Colonel Chukwuma Nzeogwu coup, but he had the British authorities to contend with. They brought back the North that was clamouring to pull out of Nigeria. They also anointed Col. Yakubu Gowon to hold power until the Fulani Sokoto Caliphate, their Nigerian puppets, recovered from the bruises of the first coup.

Gowon led the war that prevented Biafra’s secession. By 1975, he had outlived his usefulness. The Caliphate was ready to resume their throne through General Murtala Mohammed, a leading combatant of the civil war. Murtala was assassinated by Col. B.S. Dimka, apparently in retaliation for snatching power from Gowon. The mainly Christian Middle Belt had played outstanding combatant roles in the Civil War, and felt entitled to share power.

The Caliphate, with the support of Britain, used Brigadier Olusegun Obasanjo, Murtala’s Deputy and another civil war combatant, to succeed him. He was to carry out the Caliphate’s handcrafted transition to a civilian regime that must produce a carefully handpicked Caliphate “prince” as president.

Alhaji Shehu Shagari, a former personal staff of the late Sir Ahmadu Bello, succeeded Obasanjo. Soft-spoken Shagari, a teacher and bureaucrat, wanted to be a senator. His more fancied opponent, Alhaji Maitama Sule, with his flamboyant carriage and flowery oratory, was rejected in preference for a humble Caliphate purist, Shagari.

Just when Shagari was getting comfortable in power, the young Northern men who fought during the civil war, were ready to take power. They removed Shagari effortlessly and enthroned Major General Muhammadu Buhari who was already eyeing retirement from military service. Twenty months later, the same people that put Buhari in power – notably Major General Ibrahim Babangida and Major General Sani Abacha – brushed him aside and Babangida took over.

Babangida was the first Nigerian leader to meticulously plot and take power, in August 1985. He also left exactly after eight years, in August 1993 (putative two terms of office).

Because of the still bleeding sensations of Moshood Abiola’s June 12, 1993 election annulment, it was too dangerous for Babangida to hand over to Abacha, the Army Chief who saved him from Orkar’s coup of April 22, 1990. So, between them, a decision was made to look for a politically irrelevant but highly-placed Yoruba technocrat, Ernest Shonekan, to hold their horse. Abacha was appointed as the Defence Chief in the Shonekan Interim National Government.

Exactly 81 days later, Abacha was ready. He kicked out Shonekan and took power. From the look of things, Babangida and Abacha had planned it from way back in 1983 that they would grab and share power, with Babangida taking the first shot. Years later under our supposed civilian dispensation, history was to repeat itself when Tinubu approached and convinced Buhari to join him in a political merger that would make them both presidents, with Buhari taking the first shot.

When they say that history repeats itself, they are not joking. In so many ways, Tinubu appears like a civilian recreation of Babangida and Abacha, but more of the latter. We will examine this in the second part of this article next week.

Abacha’s personal and political grand designs were thwarted by providence, thus giving the external power brokers and their indigenous Nigerian pawns a chance to decide who would lead Nigeria back to “democracy”. General Abdulsalami Abubakar, who took over as the most senior Army officer, virtually hurried through an 11-month transitional programme and handed over to Obasanjo, the choice of the North and Western powers. Obasanjo ruled us for 11 years and seven months without knowing he was going to rule! But when he decided to stay longer than necessary, he was denied! Nigeria!!

See you next week for the continuation.