By Emeka Mamah
The Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the globe, leaving a trail of devastation worldwide. While Nigeria experienced a relatively lower impact of Covid-19 compared to many other nations – with a cumulative total of 266,313 cases and 3,155 deaths, according to the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control’s (NCDC) last Covid-19 report on February 26, 2023 – the pandemic still raised serious concerns about the nation’s preparedness for future health crises.

Beyond the statistics, the pandemic upended lives, strained healthcare systems, disrupted education systems, and exposed the fragility of our public health preparedness. It sparked critical conversations on how the nation can improve its pandemic response. What lessons have we learned, and what strategies can we employ to avert another devastating health crisis? One thing is clear: traditional methods need to evolve, and our response must consider not just the biological network but also the complex social dynamics that shape human behavior.

As the world grapples with the aftermath of Covid-19, the spectre of future pandemics looms large. While we cannot predict when or the exact nature of the next pandemic, it could stem from familiar threats, such as another variant of the coronavirus, the resurgence of smallpox, or an entirely new pathogen. In preparing for such threats, scientists must develop strategies that are more targeted, efficient, and effective. A critical area that has emerged is the role of social networks in the spread of both diseases and opinions.

While epidemiological models can provide decision-makers with valuable information to support outbreak preparedness and response, many of the existing models overlook this important factor. Could understanding how opinions about health measures evolve be the key to improving epidemic modeling predictions? What if a pandemic is fueled not just by pathogens but also by misinformation, disinformation, and societal resistance?

Recent research by Mr. Rex Ndubuisi Ali, an expert in network science, brings a unique perspective to pandemic modeling by exploring the intricate interplay between disease dynamics and opinion evolution, while incorporating various societal heterogeneities. His model provides a holistic strategy to modeling pandemics, addressing both biological and social dimensions of disease transmission in epidemic models – ultimately influencing the success of health interventions.

Mr. Ali’s interdisciplinary background allows him to approach pandemic modeling in a unique way. Rex Ali, a Research Fellow in the Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania (Penn) has diverse teaching experience – having served as a Computer Studies Teacher during his national service, as a Graduate Assistant at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, and now as a Teaching Assistant at Penn. His scholarly contributions extend beyond the classroom, with multiple articles published in leading international journals. Mr. Ali is one of the co-authors of a remarkable research project aimed at combating pandemics.

Through the lens of network science, his research demonstrates that pandemics demand models that account not only for the biological transmission of viruses but also social exchanges via networks that overlap with but are distinct from the disease propagation networks. The social networks shape public perception and compliance with health directives. The study highlighted that understanding how opinions evolve – whether in support of or resistance to public health measures – can dramatically influence the trajectory of disease spread. The authors emphasize that by integrating behavioral insights into disease models, scientists can better anticipate challenges and design more effective interventions.

Epidemiological models have proven invaluable in pandemic response efforts, but those that do not incorporate behavioral practices and societal heterogeneities fall short. Social factors play a crucial role in shaping public behavior during pandemics. For instance, during the Covid-19 pandemic, social networks influenced how people perceived the risks of the virus, trusted public health measures, and adhered to guidelines. Therefore, to effectively counter future pandemics, models must factor in the role of social influence when predicting compliance with health directives.

The study noted that our society is complex and inherently diverse, and to accurately assess the impact of pandemics, models must incorporate variables such as age, health conditions, ethnicity, cooperativity (willingness to follow) health guidelines, among others. For instance, older adults and immunocompromised individuals are more vulnerable to severe illness, while rural communities often face barriers to healthcare access.

These disparities were evident during the Covid-19 pandemic, and addressing them is crucial for developing targeted, equitable interventions in the future. In this era of social media, opinions about vaccines and public health guidelines rapidly evolve through social networks that may overlap but differ from biological networks. In some cases, disease transmission may occur without any exchange of opinions, such as in public transportation systems or parks.

Diseases may spread through physical contact, but opinions can spread through online networks, influencing behavior even across distant geographical locations. The authors explained that this dual transmission process – where both biological and social factors are at play – requires a deeper understanding of how opinions can either mitigate or exacerbate the spread of disease and must be jointly studied and incorporated into models to counter future pandemics.

Mr. Rex Ali’s research identifies critical social vulnerabilities within populations, particularly among groups with high interaction rates, such as younger individuals. These groups can disproportionately shape the trajectory of a pandemic, even though their individual health risks may be lower. Additionally, these groups are especially susceptible to misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda, which can be easily spread by bad actors through social media.

Addressing misinformation and building trust within these networks is vital to promoting positive behaviors and preventing the rapid spread of false information that could undermine public health efforts. The paper noted that even if their personal health risks are lower, their behavioral choices can have a cascading effect on the entire population.

When these individuals observe behavioral that reduce the spread of the biological contagion practices (e.g., wearing surgical masks, observing social distancing, hygiene such as repeated hand washing), receive vaccines or both, the entire population benefits leading to lower infection and thus less hospitalization, fatality, and man-days lost due to symptoms. Thus, by fostering trust and encouraging responsible behavior among these influential groups, public health strategies can achieve broader societal benefits.
One advantage of epidemic modeling is its ability to explore various scenarios and compare outcomes.

Mr. Ali’s research demonstrates that following a combination of behavioral practices that impede the spread of Covid-19 and partaking in vaccines that reduce the severity of symptoms together substantially reduce the impact of the disease on the population. This conclusion is expected but their findings quantify the improvements that accompany good health practices. The quantifications are useful in comparing different scenarios and the impact of opinions of different groups, which can help public health agencies formulate necessary rules and guidance and facilitate targeted interventions.

An important takeaway from Mr. Ali’s story is that engineers have critical roles to play in epidemic modeling. Nigerian-trained scholars in engineering rarely contribute to infectious disease modeling and control, despite the parallels between how diseases spread in biological networks and how malware spreads in computer networks. Engineers have strong foundations in applied mathematics and use of different computational tools, which are the bedrock of epidemic modeling.

Nigerian academic institutions could benefit from embracing a more interdisciplinary approach to research. The ability to combine disciplines like engineering and public health, as Mr. Rex Ali has done, opens new avenues for addressing global challenges. With the country’s robust engineering talent, there is great potential for Nigerian scholars to make significant contributions to epidemic modeling and preparedness, provided they are encouraged to explore beyond traditional academic boundaries. Mr. Ali’s research is a testament to the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration and innovation in tackling the complex problems posed by pandemics.

Mr. Rex Ali embodies the spirit of extraordinary ability in network science research, as he is conducting original research to contribute new knowledge to his field. This involves designing studies, modeling, computing, and analyzing outcomes for different scenarios and publishing findings in academic journals.

By understanding the interplay between opinion evolution and disease dynamics, while accounting for societal heterogeneities, epidemic models can help formulate more effective public health strategies. For example, public health campaigns can be tailored to address specific concerns and misconceptions within different communities and develop more targeted and effective interventions to mitigate the impact of future pandemics. Additionally, investing in digital infrastructure and promoting online health literacy can help combat misinformation and foster trust in public health institutions.

By embracing a holistic approach that considers both biological and social factors, we can build a more resilient global health system that is better equipped to face future challenges. Mr. Ali’s research is pioneering in epidemic modeling and control, and provides a valuable roadmap for this endeavor, highlighting the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, innovation, and a deep understanding of the complex interplay between disease dynamics, opinion evolution, and societal heterogeneities.

See this other research publications:

Ali, Rex N., and Saswati Sarkar. “Impact of opinion dynamics on the public health damage inflicted by COVID-19 in the presence of societal heterogeneities.” Frontiers in Digital Health 5 (2023): 1146178.
Ali, Rex N., Harvey Rubin, and Saswati Sarkar. “Countering the potential re-emergence of a deadly infectious disease – Information warfare, identifying strategic threats, launching countermeasures.” Plos one 16.8 (2021): e0256014.