By Dr Ugoji Egbujo

Lebanon is in a financial mess. Its currency retains only 2% of its 2019 value. But that’s not the real trouble. Now, it has been dragged into a war.

In the beginning, Lebanon had 70% Christians. The Christians ruled.

However, critical offices of the state were distributed across the religions and peoples. They lived happily, Christians, Muslims and Jews. Beirut became the Paris of the Middle East. Lebanon bubbled. The diversity was a strength and the country flourished. Arabs trooped in from neighbouring countries to seek greener pastures. Then, gradually, the demographics changed. Polygamy and high birth rate amongst Muslims shifted the balance. Once Muslims had a slight majority, the other Arab countries identified Lebanon as an outpost they could use to fight Zionism. Tensions rose, and religious militias started to sprout from all sides. This would later culminate in the Lebanese civil war.

In 1978, the first Israeli invasion happened. Palestinian militants in Southern Lebanon, Israel sailed into Israel by boat, hijacked a loaded bus, and massacred its occupants. It was called the Coastal Road Massacre. Their grouse was the occupation of Palestine by Israel. That time, they wanted to torpedo the peace talks between Israel and Egypt. Israel, ever paranoid and hawkish, marched in and occupied southern Lebanon to rout the Palestinian militants based there. The brotherhood formed a resistance. That was how Hezbollah was born. A Shia Militia that would later transform into the most important proxy of Iran.

The 1982 war ruined Beirut. And it never recovered. Lebanon lost its status as the regional destination of Western investments and tourism. Dubai has since taken over. Lebanon gradually transformed into a deeply divided country preoccupied by the troubles of its neighbours. The Israeli menace remained. Many fled the battered and disoriented country. Despite the political unification arrangements fashioned in the Taif Agreement at the end of the civil war in 1989, Lebanon’s secularity continued diminish. Its allegiance to Iran and consequent religious polarization continued retard it. More Lebanese now live in diaspora than at home. Today, nobody remembers that the actual population is still nearly 50:50 for Muslim:Christian because Hezbollah is stronger than the Lebanese National Army.

In 2006, another war broke out. Hezbollah crossed the border and seized two Israeli soldiers. Their grievance was the Israeli occupation of Palestine. Again, Israel responded with ferocity and left Lebanon in ruins. Later, the supreme leader of the Hezbollah would confess that had he known that the seizure of two soldiers would lead to an industrial-scale destruction of thousands of lives and property, he wouldn’t have ordered the operation even though he still believed it was just.

But the relations between Lebanon and Israel improved. Hezbollah agreed to stay behind the Litani River. Some land disputes, however, remained. However, internal mutual suspicions reached a new peak as Hezbollah took total charge of Lebanon despite the farce of a Christian presidency. Hezbollah, the Shia militia, which rendered social services, was also a political party. The amorphous nature of Hezbollah, its sworn solidarity with Hamas, and its fraternity with Iran made peace between Lebanon and Israel difficult. The West regarded Iran as an axis of evil and categorized the resistance as a terrorist group.

Predictably, a few years ago, Lebanon went bankrupt. While struggling to secure IMF and other loans, October 7 happened. Hamas invaded Israel on a Saturday morning and massacred and kidnapped Israeli civilians in an operation facilitated by Iran. Hezbollah justified the invasion and vowed to defend Hamas. Promptly, it began launching rockets into Northern Israel. Israel, wary of fighting on two fronts, paid little attention to Hezbollah with occasional retaliatory strikes aimed at missile launchers while warning Lebanon to desist. Its undiluted venom was for Gaza. Since the October 7 massacre, Israel has refused to listen to entreaties or obey any conventions in their unending retaliation against Hamas. Because of the solidarity between Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah and the unity against what they call Zionism, Hezbollah, heedless of the anxiety of the ordinary Lebanese, remained adamant about attacking northern Israel.

Many settlements in the north of Israel have since been destroyed or evacuated. The seemingly belligerent actions of Hezbollah troubled the Christian and Jewish population in Lebanon. They didn’t want to use their heads to collect an angry wasp. But Hezbollah didn’t heed. In July 2024, the dreaded cascade began. Israel assassinated Faud Shukr, a Hezbollah military chief in Lebanon. It appeared Israel had caught its breath from causing mayhem in Gaza and decided to break the effrontery of Hezbollah. As Hezbollah was planning a retaliatory response, Israel detonated all the pagers used by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Forty people, including children, were killed, and almost 3000 were injured. While some thought that was just a bloodied nose, others warned it was the precursor to an invasion. The next day, as Hezbollah buried their dead and swore revenge, Israel detonated walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah.

In three days, Hezbollah, reputed for its formidability, was in literal tatters. And their opponent hadn’t even revved the jets and drones. Their immediate face-saving recourse was indiscriminate rocketry. They have since managed to send a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv, signalling an unused capacity to cause damage in the big cities.

Subsequently, Israel told people in southern Lebanon to evacuate.

Before they could leave, it started to pound residential buildings used by Hezbollah for missile storage and launches. Once again, the major highways are rammed with fleeing people, abandoning their homes and livelihoods, not knowing when they might return. Broke Lebanon is about to get broken. Lebanese Christians have had it with Hezbollah’s nuisance. Nasrallah, the Hezbollah supreme commander, has promised an all-out war against the Zionists. Iran, which doesn’t want to get into a direct war with Israel, has promised to help Hezbollah. A few weeks ago, Ismail Haniyeh, the political head of Hamas was assassinated in Iran as he was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian president. Iran could only bark. Lebanese Christians say Hezbollah lacks the guile of its mentor Iran, likes to use its head to break coconuts for other people.

The roads are clogged. Hezbollah fighters are moving south.

Israeli jets are restless. The skies of Lebanon are filled with ruthless drones. Once again, the world is slow and timid. This situation should be contained. Israel should be stopped immediately. They must be compelled to respect international boundaries and conventions. But that must be accompanied by giving them a new assurance of safety on the northern border so that Israeli communities in the north can return home. The Lebanese National Army must be fortified and Hezbollah dismantled to unify Lebanon and protect its freedom. But realistically, dismantling Hezbollah might require resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict along the two-state solution compromise. It’s a complex problem. There is no easy solution. But to do nothing but talk in the face of the carnage is egregious evil.