By Hilary Otsu

The confession of his estranged deputy, Comrade Philip Shaibu last Tuesday brought home the reality of the loneliness of Governor Godwin Obaseki in the most challenging moment of his governorship.

Speaking on Arise News Television, Shaibu mocked his principal, Obaseki over his controversial Sunday morning visit to the office of the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC in Benin-City.

“We were the ones who used to do all such things for him. He need not have gone to INEC office by himself,” Shaibu said on Arise Television on Tuesday.

Shaibu’s confession of being among those that used to run such election night errands for Obaseki quickly brought to mind the exact scenario eight years ago when the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP officials claimed to be in the lead in the 2016 election until a night visit turned the tables.

However, bereft of the kind of political solidarity that helped him to his 2016 and 2020 election victories, Obaseki was forced to running his errands himself. Shaibu, though still remaining as deputy governor courtesy of the courts was in open campaign against Obaseki and the PDP, the political party that brought them to power as governor and deputy governor in 2020.

Besides Shaibu, a number of PDP foot soldiers who could have assisted Obaseki were hundreds of kilometers away in Abuja allegedly held in custody over alleged violence. If his number two was against him, the political arena was no less hostile even within his PDP. Chief Dan Orbih, the national vice-chairman, South-South of the PDP who managed the Obaseki campaign in 2020 was even without openly declaring for the APC alleged to be coordinating the internal rebellion against Obaseki.

After he was pushed away from the APC in June 2020, Obaseki was welcomed into the PDP with mixed feelings. Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama who was on a roller-coaster to win the PDP governorship ticket that year was persuaded to step down was made promises including a senate ticket which never came to pass. Orbih, the national vicechairman, South South gave him every support.

Orbih became campaign manager and mounted the rostrum every where in Edo State to pave victory for Obaseki in 2020. Following the victory, Obaseki took more than 11 months to constitute his cabinet. In that time he ran the government with the two former APC members he brought with him to government; his deputy, Shaibu and the Secretary to the State Government, Osarodion Ogie. Mutters began to be expressed by the PDP members who thought that having sacrificed the two top positions in government that Obaseki will reward them. But no.

The governor’s response was that the PDP should dissolve its structures across the state so that he would appoint those who came with him from the APC into the PDP structures. The PDP members firmly rebuffed him. That was the beginning of the crisis. Many PDP members told him to go with his government and that they would hold their party. As the crisis grew, Obaseki summoned some party leaders who were differential to him and senior government officials on October 11, 2021 where he announced the suspension of Orbih, Ogbeide- Ihama among others he defined as trouble makers. “I will not leave PDP. I am the leader of PDP and by the grace of God I will lead PDP well.

Any body that doesn’t want me to lead or want to accept my leadership will leave PDP for me,” he said on that day. That was seen as the last straw on the camel’s back by many. It was following this that Orbih who had held the party for more than 15 years before Obaseki began separating with him. Orbih started coalescing the old PDP members and eventually became known as the Legacy PDP. With the power of incumbency, the group despite having the majority of supporters in the state executive lost the recognition of the national leadership of the party who ceded party tickets in the 2023 election to the candidates’ slate presented by Obaseki.

The Legacy Group kept away from the 2023 General Election, and where not, supported others against their party leading to the humiliating defeat of the PDP in the presidential and National Assembly elections. It was the first time that the PDP would lose the National Assembly elections in Edo State as the party did not win a single Senate seat. Indeed, even with Adams Oshiomhole as governor the PDP was able to show muscle in national assembly elections getting the majority of seats. The National Assembly election results in 2023 forced Obaseki on a save my life crusade ahead of the State House of Assembly election.

His motif was to insinuate that a defeat for the PDP would lead to the emergence of an APC House that would be dominated by Adams Oshiomhole. It was a trick that worked somewhat. The PDP eventually won control of the House of Assembly in March 2023. That House of Assembly victory perhaps gave Obaseki the confidence that he could still muscle his way through in the governorship election. Though he tried to make peace with Orbih but the effort was not seen as convincing enough. For example for the first time Obaseki showed up at the traditional Christmas party hosted by Orbih at his Ogbona country home to identify with him last December. But many saw it as a move by the governor to buy over those he had consistently derided as dead woods. When Asue Ighodalo emerged as candidate, the governor against the advice of Legacy PDP members and others insisted on foisting Osarodion Ogie, seen as one of his surrogates who came with him from the APC as the running mate. A source revealed that even when Obaseki was approached to consider Ogbeide-Ihama as a sop to the Legacy Group he was said to have scorned the idea on the claim that the Legacy Group had been buried.

So, it meant that for two election circles that the original PDP would not have any of its own on the ticket of the party. Obaseki’s fate was worsened by the way he managed the PDP primary which led almost all of the 10 other aspirants who vied for the ticket with Ighodalo to take position against their party. Though Orbih was not visible in the public face of marshalling the opposition, he nevertheless was believed to have been the fulcrum around with the opposition by the PDP Legacy members vented out their frustration. Obaseki it would be said helped to bring diverse foes together to stop what many of them saw as a third term for himself.

The result was the bruising defeat of the PDP which on election day did not have the ground commanders to protect the votes if counted or not altered would have probably made the difference. While the Orbih-led Legacy Group undermined him from within, a former political benefactor of Obaseki, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole assailed to no end throughout the campaign. The result of the collaboration was made manifest in the 2020 to 2024 election result that showed the PDP scoring about 8% what it scored in Edo North in 2020. Even more dramatic was the spike in the APC votes in 2024 which rose from the 104,961 recorded i