Nigeria’s fertiliser paradox is becoming harder to ignore. The country now possesses fertiliser production capacity, yet farmers are applying nowhere near enough nutrients to unlock its agricultural potential. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security says national fertiliser consumption is about 18.6 kilogrammes per hectare, against the 50kg/ha benchmark associated with the 2006 Abuja Declaration. The Fertiliser Producers and Sellers Association of Nigeria (FEPSAN), using another measure, put application at 24kg/ha in March 2026.

Either way, the shortfall is substantial. FAO-based data show Nigeria at 22.6kg/ha in 2020, falling to 18.0kg in 2021, 7.3kg in 2022 and 4.2kg in 2023. Differences between these figures reflect methodology but show that fertiliser deployment has not kept pace with agricultural needs. The International Fertiliser Development Centre (IFDC) recorded 79kg/ha in Zambia and 14.4kg/ha in Tanzania in 2020, illustrating how far national averages can diverge. ECOWAS has now adopted an ambition to triple fertiliser consumption and double agricultural production by 2035.

For Nigeria, reaching 50kg/ha should be regarded as a minimum strategic benchmark, not an excuse for indiscriminate application. The appropriate rate must vary with crop, soil, climate and nutrient requirements. But a country seeking abundant food supplies from millions of hectares cannot remain at these levels. Higher, scientifically targeted use of mineral and organic nutrients, combined with improved seeds, irrigation, extension and mechanisation, is indispensable.

Why is deployment so poor? Cost is a major factor. Fertiliser prices, transport expenses, foreign-exchange pressures, weak rural infrastructure and limited farm credit have made inputs unaffordable. Distribution is another: fertiliser may be produced in abundance but still fail to reach farmers on time. Weak extension services and inadequate soil testing further encourage inefficient or insufficient application.

But the gravest obstacle is insecurity. Terrorists and bandits have occupied or rendered inaccessible forests, farmlands and rural corridors in parts of the North-East, North-West and North-Central food-basket zones. Farmers have been killed, kidnapped, taxed, threatened or driven from their fields. FAO reports that conflict is severely disrupting agricultural activity in key food-producing states and that more than 3.7 million Nigerians were internally displaced by early August 2026.

The consequences are visible in the hunger stalking the land. Nearly 36.3 million people were estimated to face Crisis-level food insecurity or worse during the June–August 2026 lean season. Displacement destroys farming assets, labour and planting cycles, while reduced harvests tighten supplies and push prices upward. Government must therefore treat fertiliser and security policy as inseparable. The Federal and State Governments must act decisively and systematically to restore security across Nigeria, reclaim threatened farming communities, reopen productive land for cultivation and markets, and restore rural economic life safely.

Without safe access to farms, no fertiliser programme can deliver food abundance. Only a secure Nigeria can feed its roughly 240 million people. Security is the foundation of food production.