Whatever you choose to say of him, Bola Tinubu (Jagaban Borgu) is a special case study in Nigerian politics. He is the only political leader who successfully installed his handpicked governors, and controlled the nation’s richest state – Lagos – for 25 years and counting. He is the only political leader who installed two presidents – Muhammadu Buhari and himself. The story is vividly captured in my book: BUHARI:TINUBU – How They Snatched and Shared Power (Amazon Books, August 2023).

Because Tinubu makes godfatherism look like a piece of cake, every departing governor wants to play Jagaban. But the harder they come, the harder they fall. Well, not exactly “every”. There are some wise ones, and I recommend them to Ezenwo Nyesom Wike, Minister of the FCT, who has mired himself in the quixotic misadventure of playing Jagaban in Rivers State. I have two cases for his attention.

The first is Atiku Abubakar, a former Vice President of Nigeria. He won the governorship election of Adamawa State in 1999. But because he was picked by Olusegun Obasanjo as presidential running mate, he handed over to his Deputy, Bonnie Haruna. As VP, Atiku did not play godfather over Haruna. He played the Big Uncle. Haruna is a Christian in a state politically dominated by Muslims, though adherents of the two faiths are roughly 50-50. Atiku protected Haruna and afforded him his two terms of office. In return, Haruna made Atiku’s wish his command.

The second, more exciting example is in Borno State. Senator Ali Sheriff (alias SAS) was a very imperial Governor between 2003 and 2011. When he was about to finish, he decided to play Jagaban. He installed one of his finest and best performing Commissioners, Kashim Shettima, a banker, as his successor. Initially, Shettima played along. But when Sheriff’s demands became unbearable and he started moving towards thwarting Shettima’s second term, the latter brought out his iron-studded knuckles. He not only trounced SAS, but he also completed his second term in 2019 with distinction as the Chairman of the 19 Northern Governors Forum.

Unlike many of this power drunk mates, Shettima learned from his own experience with SAS. He decided not to play Jagaban. He selected his most hardworking and least corrupt Commissioners, Prof. Babagana Zulum, as his successor. Before he handed over, he told a group of editors that Zulum would perform better than him. He repeatedly referred to him as “my leader” even while Zulum had not been sworn in as Governor. Then, he proceeded to the Senate. It was from there that Tinubu, as the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, chose him as his running mate.

Shettima’s humility and wisdom paid off. If he had tried to rough-ride Governor Zulum just because he installed him, the latter, being hot-tempered and pugnacious, would have done to Shettima what Shettima did to SAS: retire him from political relevance. Whoever hears of SAS these days?

But with political astuteness, Shettima sits pretty today as Nigeria’s Number Two! Who benefits? Borno State. Because of Shettima’s dextrous handling of his relationship with Governor Zulum, the latter even counted himself out when he was rumoured to also be under Tinubu’s consideration for Vice President. He chose to complete his second term.

Wike failed to understand the dynamics of Rivers politics. Rivers is not Lagos. Culturally and psychologically, Rivers is Eastern, not Western, in political behaviour. Western style is called oga so pe (the master says that…). Eastern mentality is republican and equity-based. Take yours and let me take mine. Or I fight you. A Rivers State Governor is a Pharaoh over his state, but butter in the hands of a President in Aso Rock. He spends the resources of the state as he likes. Everyone wants to be in his good books. But once his time is up, he’s gone. This is the story of Dr Peter Odili and Chibuike Amaechi.

But, Wike wants to change the narrative. He wants to be Jagaban, even after severally denouncing godfatherism. He installs his former Accountant General, Siminalayi Fubara, as his successor, and sponsors all other elected officials with the Rivers people’s money. He supported Tinubu during the presidential election. He gets rewarded with a ministerial portfolio. As minister, he moves to dictate to Governor Fubara. It backfires like Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies. A minister seeking to control a state governor is like the tail trying to wag the dog.

Wike and his followers are still very adamant. Usually, most of them should have lined up behind Fubara by now. But their seeming stamina is hinged on the hope that with “federal might”, Wike will bring victory. With the Police, Army, INEC, DSS and the Supreme Court in Tinubu’s hands, he can swing the recent “Edo magic” in their favour in 2027. It might even happen sooner if Tinubu agrees to declare a state of emergency and flush out Fubara.

I have a piece of advice as a concerned Nigerian for Tinubu and Wike. They should leave Fubara alone. Luckily for Wike, he is in the good books of the President and Vice President, or so it seems for now. He threatened to “put fire” in the states of PDP governors opposed to him; he started from his own state. Trouble no good o! Any state of emergency in Rivers State will spark uncontrollable blaze. Let us be advised by the Western Region crises of 1962-1965. It brought the civil war.

A state of emergency is a legitimisation of unconstitutional rule. Those who play with fire can be consumed by it. Even if Wike succeeds in hijacking Rivers State for Tinubu, he is doomed. Tinubu is Jagaban! Rivers State in his kitty will be dream come true. He won’t share power with Wike. He will delegate control to a trusted APC indigenous loyalist.

Wike will be the final LOSER.